Contests of chance in general -if, in fact, there is no external influence – are a perfect example of what the probability is. The human being has been asked many times about how likely it is that the occurrence of a particular event, for example, to throw a coin into the air and see if it falls to one side or the other. And it is supposed that in the world of large numbers, when you make millions and millions of attempts, the probability of dropping a coin on one side or the other is 50%.

But this is the ideal world. Today, talking with a couple of students of my course of Digital processing of Images, discussing an idea for making more efficient the search algorithm of the best image to place it in the fotomosaico they have to create. A student from China, Yuguo (I say “Hugo”), along with Diego, where the latter found an interesting idea using **tree-k-dimensional**, we talked about what approach I had to use for the task referred to. To Yuguo occurred to him to use a method in where is not necessarily the best image in the fotomosaico, but an approximate. His comment was: if there is in a classroom of three students of more than 1.80 m. why do I have to review each one of them in your height? Let’s say that-as think of my student – is a waste of time. Then we pointed out to Diego and to me that looking for “the most likely”, which means-according to the algorithm that seems to follow – to have some way of searching in an area of the search space, ignoring the rest. So, find an image acceptably good though as the same Yuguo said, “it is not the optimal image”. I asked for that document her algorithm to study it.

Well, all of this was the preamble for when Yuguo said to me: “I think that the probability is in the head, nothing more.” And part of it is reason. The reality is that the probability of dropping a coin in an attempt to is exactly the same as the one who will have even though they have been thrown away before a billion times the currency. We will, no matter who has left the same side of the coin in a billion shot (unlikely, very little), the next attempt has the same probability of leaving the “sun” or “eagle” (face or cross, well).

And then we talk about the competitions where the chance exists. We discussed the problem of Melate and I told them that the number of contests comes to just under 4000. These are not the large numbers on where, if it is a contest totally random, the percentage that quit a number is 1/56. As simple as that. But it turns out that there are many numbers out there that have frequencies different. This is the result that give me the software:

*Frequencies/Numbers (highest to lowest) with 7 numbers.*

*507 times – 32**505 times – 12**503 times – 37**497 times – 13**495 times – 20**492 times – 5**488 times – 36**487 times – 16,33**485 times – 2,7**484 times – 15,28**483 times – 11,19,25**482 times – 30**481 times – 1,18**475 times – 14,29**473 times – 9**471 times – 8**470 times – 6**469 times – 17**466 times – of 3.27**464 times – 4,39**463 times – 21,38**462 times – 22,24**458 times – 26**456 times – 31,34**451 times – 10**444 times – 35**432 times – 23**406 times – 40**385 times – 43**380 times – 44**373 times – 42**350 times – 41**229 times – 45**228 times – 47**212 times – 46**192 times – 49**189 times – 48**175 times – 51**173 times – 50**161 times – 56**154 times – 52**151 times – 55**150 times – 54**135 times – 53*

If we consider this table, we see that numbers such as 32, 12, 37, 13, the 20 and the 5 have come out with much more frequency that the 53, 54, 55, 52, 51, 48, 10 among others.

Why is this happening? There are two possible reasons: the first is that the law of probability, in this case, 1/56, applies to large numbers, to make these draws millions and millions of times, and even so, I don’t know what means exactly “large numbers”, that is to say, what time to arrive at that number… The second is that indeed, as Yuguo said to me, the probability is a human construct and it is an observation that we want to assume that in general is true, although this happens in the ideal world and not in the real world, in which we live, and where the difference in weights (even if they are tenths of a gram) of the pellets that are placed in the draw, can make the difference that shows the reasons why the 10 comes out a third of what comes out on the 12th, for example.

Then, if there is to establish a criterion, if we think that in these “large numbers”, the odds eventually were to be equalized, we can think that less than 4000 contests (since 1984), do not fall even remotely into this law of large numbers and, therefore, think that the numbers that have not come now it will come out more often, is simply to believe that we are in the ideal world of the likelihood.

So, do you want to win the Melate? From then you will have to have a stroke of luck because as we stated at the beginning of the article, if it is random actually each number should have a 1/56 chance of going out (although on reflection, the first number is 1/56 chance of exit, the second 1/55, the third 1/54, etc.). But in general terms, the contests occur in the real world, and although yes, the numbers for go are “equally likely” (in the ideal world), in the real noticeable preference due to the “imperfection of reality”. Consequently, the best bet must be to the most-used phone numbers.

Since then -and before somebody comes to claim that he did not win the Melate – this is merely a speculation that seeks to be educated, that is to say, based on facts. And I return to elaborate: the balls of the real contest may not have strictly the same weight, and a difference of tenths of a gram between one and the other could make a sphere out more times than the other, although obviously, I can’t say that this happens for this reason.

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