If you were to receive a tip of an entrepreneur is super successful like Mark Zuckerberg or someone who has fallen into bankruptcy who would you listen? Of course, Zuckerberg! Who else can tell a correct strategy?
If you are a creative person, who will listen? What do Steven Spielberg or an extra unknown? Of course, the first! You may think that you do a question very strange. What about the secrets of the longevity wonder to the people that are 100 years old? Of course! And you’ll always be wrong!
In Great.guru, along with the writer David McRaney, we will tell you why.
Let’s see why
Expliquémoslo using Brad Pitt as an example. Let’s imagine that the day that Brad -a young cute and ambitious – came to Hollywood, next to him also came a hundred other young men, cute and ambitious. Maybe some of them were even more beautiful, ambitious, had more talent and even links. But in the end, of these hundred, only Pitt managed to get to fame. And here is the main paradox. He can’t explain to you how to get to be so famous and to avoid failure, because eventually all of his decisions proved to be correct. Only those that have failed, that hundreds of guys can explain how to avoid the wrong decisions.
And now you think. Brad Pitt is in all the headings. A man super-successful who has achieved so much, to which they all want to ask an advice to learn the secret of success. And the secret to success really can be discovered not by them, but by those who ever took a wrong decision.
This phenomenon, which only takes into account the data of the winners, and avoiding the data of the losers, it is called “the error of the survivor”.
What is the essence of the phenomenon
The world discovered this phenomenon during the Second World War, when the command u.s. sought to increase the number of bombers that were returning from the battles. In a study of aircraft survivors it turned out that all were pierced with bullets, mostly along the wings and in the center of the bottom of the hull. It was decided to add more armor there. Do you think that is logical?
But oh no! The intervention of the famous mathematician Abraham Wald saved to the aeronautics of a fatal error. He opened his eyes and noted that the bullet holes, by contrast, showed the loud parts of the bombers. These damaged parts are not prevented to survive. And precisely those parts of the bombers were survivors who were not damaged were the most vulnerable. And that simply did not beat the enemy bullets, allowing the pilots to return home.
In this way, statisticians became aware of the phenomenon, “the error of the survivor”. A trend of false to focus on the survivors rather than the dead, in the success in place of failure.
Then, why do you always fall?
We know this phenomenon but do not take into account at all. Why? Because we use a common logic. If you care about the secret of longevity, you ask to a grandmother of 100 years. And if she has that smoked all his life, he took others and say bad words, make sure that you are going to think that this is the secret of a long life. And you’ll wonder what you’re going to the damn gym.
However, you must keep in mind that there are many more people that did not survive with the same regimen. The fact that she has reached an older age rather are due to luck and not the secret to longevity.
So the next time you hear the speech of Steven Spielberg or of a Methuselah, remember this “error of the survivor”. Careful to take advice only from successful people. Keep in mind the losers if you want to win.
In addition, repeat exactly the same way that they made Zuckerberg or Spielberg, having taken exactly the same decisions, it is virtually impossible in the new realities. You will never be as successful as Steven Spielberg. Simply because the world does not need a second Spielberg. The world needs someone new.
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